Headline: Bio-Based Economy. Policy Framework and Foresight Thinking

The bioeconomy, understood as the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy via innovative and efficient technologies, has the potential to tackle current grand challenges like natural resource scarcity, climate change, food supply and energy. Improved and systematic foresight investigations with a focus on regulations, policies and technologies are needed for better decision-making in the future and for enabling the bio-based economy to timely tackle those challenges. A common understanding of the challenges and of the capacities available is a basis for conducting foresight. This chapter, after providing an overview of the drivers and challenges of the bioeconomy and of the European policy framework governing it, explains the concept of foresight thinking and its potential contribution to the achievement of the targets of the bio-based strategy. It explains the potential role that regulatory foresight can play in establishing a sustainable circular bio-based economy and provides an overview of existing foresight studies directed to improve understanding of the future in the following dimensions:

• Biomass availability and trends

• Technology development and horizon scanning of emerging technology

• Market acceptance of bio-based products

• Regulatory and policy-framework.