The decarbonisation of the energy system poses many challenges, from major investments to infrastructure redesign. Bureau of Land Management/CC BY 2.0

Headline: Energy Transition Dynamics

The Energy Transition Dynamics Group conducts problem-driven research about the transition to a completely carbon-neutral energy sector. The group's research focus reflects the Paris Agreement's commitment to the elimination of carbon emissions. Understanding how a transition to a carbon-neutral and fully renewable energy future can be brought about in a rapid and socially acceptable way is the key aim.

The transition entails many challenges, from fostering public participation and acceptance to building the necessary innovation systems and supply chains, from redesigning electricity infrastructure to changing market regulations. And finally, strategies are needed for the regions currently dependent on fossil fuel industries. The Energy Transition Dynamics Group investigates all stages of the transition. The group is conducting five third-party funded projects, mainly funded by the European Research Council and the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme. In these projects, the group works to

improve understanding of how policies and stakeholder activities advance transitions (TRIPOD, TIPPING+).
analyse trade-offs and impacts of policy options, strategies, and instruments to bring about a transition to a completely carbon-neutral energy sector (TRIPOD, MUSTEC, OpenCSP, SENTINEL).

Performing both empirical and theoretical work, the researchers approach transition problems from new angles to broaden and deepen disciplinary perspectives. The group's research draws on theories and methods from several disciplines, including political science, economics, power system modelling, and transition studies. For each specific research question, the researchers adopt a distinct theoretical and methodological framework. Transdisciplinary and co-creative approaches are applied when possible. The team collaborates with European and international colleagues to broaden understanding of renewable energy policies and tap into relevant methodological expertise.

Projects

Europe is transitioning towards a renewable energy supply. Identifying trade-offs with other political goals and developing solutions is crucial to the success of this transformation.

In the TRIPOD project, researchers investigate how all of the policies of the European Union interact and affect the prospects and costs of a transition to a renewable power system; how the other aims limit the options for renewables; and how policy conflicts can be resolved.

The Sustainable Energy Transition Laboratory will develop a new framework for modelling energy systems.

The transition to a low-carbon energy system will involve a major redesign of the energy system with a focus on renewable energy sources. The Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory will develop, test and make freely available a modelling framework that helps a wide range of stakeholders make the critical decisions they are now faced with.

European regions heavily dependent on coal or carbon intensive industries are facing structural change. The transformation can only succeed with the support of the population.

If Europe is to reach its 2030 and 2050 climate targets, it will need to fully decarbonise its energy and industrial sectors. This may have serious effects on the economies and social structures of affected regions, and especially those regions whose economies depend strongly on single coal- or carbon-intensive sectors. In this project, researchers are investigating how regions can be transformed without triggering social or economic decline.

Workers install a reflective parabolic trough at a solar thermal power plant in Spain.

Solar thermal power plants are a controllable source of renewable electricity. The development of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies is promising, but their expansion has been overshadowed by solar photovoltaics, which are more affordable but less reliable. This project will collect and publish data relating to CSP projects worldwide with the aim of providing the research and policy community with a detailed, high-quality overview.

Completed Projects

Restrictions imposed to combat the coronavirus pandemic are complicating EU-funded research projects on the energy transition.

In EU research projects, the involvement of stakeholders, such as NGOs and businesses, plays an increasing role. During the pandemic, almost half of the planned activities have been cancelled. According to scientists, this could lead to problems in later project phases.

Germany has to buy a large part of its green hydrogen from wind- and sun-rich regions of the world.

Germany will remain dependent on energy imports for the foreseeable future. This will include green hydrogen imports from regions with abundant solar and wind energy resources. Supported by researchers from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam, the HyPat project is conducting a global assessment of green hydrogen potentials, as called for in Germany's National Hydrogen Strategy (Nationale Wasserstoffstrategie - NWS).

Energy models and energy policy influence each other.

Scientists have been using energy models to provide policy advice for years. As a new study shows, energy models influence policymaking around the energy transition. Similarly, policymakers influence the work of modellers. Greater transparency is needed to ensure that political considerations do not set the agenda for future research or determine its findings.

A comprehensive restructuring of the energy system is necessary to achieve climate neutrality.

In order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the world must reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Carbon pricing – recently introduced in Germany for transportation and heating – is viewed by many governments and experts as the most important climate policy instrument. However, a new study shows that carbon pricing has been less effective as a driver of technological change than was previously anticipated.

The composition of the electricity mix varies across the European Union. Governments will need to coordinate their reform efforts to better promote energy transitions.

The European Union recently adopted more ambitious climate goals for 2030 – their implementation is now the focus of debate. What do the Member States need to consider? A new study shows how important it is that governments coordinate policy reforms to support renewable electricity. Otherwise, many investors are likely to shift their focus to technologies that will continue to be subsidized or to countries where subsidies are still available. This outcome would increase the overall costs of expanding renewable electricity generation in Europe.

Fridays for Future protest in Hamburg: There is a broad political and public consensus on the need for climate action. But opinions are divided on the precise form it should take.

Which political parties have the most ambitious climate and energy policies? The answer, according to a new study, is surprising. In Germany, France, Spain and Italy, parties across the political spectrum, from the Greens to the Liberals, show a similar level of ambition on this score. However, researchers have also identified a major impediment to the energy transition: none of the investigated parties has a convincing idea for a technology mix that would ensure grid stability despite weather-related fluctuations in wind and solar energy.

Wind turbines on the outskirts of Avignon: By 2050, Europe is to become a climate-neutral continent.

The European Union aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and is relying largely on renewable electricity to reach this goal. The implementation of this energy transition is the subject of heated debate: A continental-scale system that concentrates energy generation infrastructure in the most suitable locations would provide the most afforable solution but many citizens favour smaller, more dispersed supply networks. A new study prepared by researchers in Potsdam and Zurich shows that the implementation of such systems would not incur significant additional costs.

Onshore wind power plays a key role in the European energy transition.

Transitioning our energy supply from coal, oil and gas to wind and solar power is feasible. However, renewables require more land than conventional forms of energy generation. A new study explores the options to reduce the land requirements of a fully renewable energy supply in Europe and their possible impact on the cost of electricity.

IASS researchers examine the options for the future of the European energy transition in two online surveys.

If we are to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal, we must create a net-zero emissions energy system. A new set of energy modelling tools is needed to explore potential energy futures and opportunities to transform existing energy systems. Researchers from the Sustainable Energy Transition Laboratory (SENTINEL) project have launched an online survey to learn more about the requirements for energy models to support decision-making for the European energy transition. In a second survey, they are examining the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the stakeholder engagement activities of energy research projects.

Regional or local self-sufficiency with renewable electricity generated by wind and sun is possible in many places in Europe.

Europe has enough solar and wind resources to meet its electricity demand entirely from renewable sources. A new study by researchers at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam shows that many regions and municipalities could meet their electricity demand using electricity systems based exclusively on renewables. However, their development would exacerbate land use pressure around metropolitan areas and larger conurbations.

Marc André Melliger

Prof. Dr. Johan Lilliestam

Richard Thonig

Some German political parties and economists suggest ending the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) surcharge in the power bill and instead financing renewables through the carbon tax. While the recent carbon pricing debate has focused on equity and political feasibility, it has neglected the elephant in the room: how would this change affect Germany’s ability to meet the 2030 climate goals? Here, we show that this refinancing would put climate goals at risk. Purely market-based renewables are not yet viable, the change could therefore slow down their already sluggish deployment. We thus argue that the EEG remains the quintessential instrument for German climate policy in the coming decade.

Dr. Diana Süsser

In spring 2020, we asked ourselves: What effects are the Corona restrictions having on projects in energy and marine research that actively include interest groups (or stakeholders) in their research?

Dr. Germán Bersalli

Dr. Natalia Realpe Carrillo

The Argentinean electricity sector remains concentrated in a few actors and is highly dependent on fossil fuels. We discuss in our blogpost the opportunities and barriers to supporting micro-scale renewable energy projects, which can directly benefit families and small businesses throughout the country.

Dr. Diana Süsser

What role do businesses and households play in smart and climate-neutral energy systems? Why does this pose challenges for energy modelling? Diana Süsser (IASS) and Andrzej Ceglarz (Renewables Grid Initiative) shed light on this in their article.

Dr. Diana Süsser

On the 7th of October, the European Parliament voted to adopt a more ambitious climate target to reduce EU emissions by 60% in 2030 compared to 1990, up from 40% currently. Policymaking and planning decisions towards this target are not straight forward, and it bears the question: How can we foster the societal and political acceptance needed to completely decarbonise our energy systems? While energy models can be used to study the pathways towards a decarbonised energy system, they largely neglect the social and political dimensions of the energy transition. To provide more realistic, relevant, and sustainable decision-advice, it’s time for energy modellers to integrate social concerns in their models.

Dr. Diana Süsser

Hannes Gaschnig

The energy transition raises many questions about how to achieve and design net-zero emission energy systems. Energy models can support decision-makers by providing virtual laboratories in which different energy futures can be explored. But what are the requirements of different stakeholders on these energy models? Which challenges of the energy transition should they tackle? What questions should these models be able to answer? In order to identify needs and discuss the expectations placed on energy modelling in the framework of the project Sustainable Energy Transition Laboratory (SENTINEL), we conducted an online survey in summer and held an online expert workshop on the 1st of October.

Dr. Diana Süsser

Countries have responded differently to the large societal and economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. While some view the crisis as a window of opportunity for new technologies and approaches to achieve climate neutrality, others will be tempted to reinforce their dependence on old technologies, leading to a carbon lock-in. Israel’s response as a start-up nation is promising, but further measures are needed to support a green transition.

Dr. Germán Bersalli

Argentina is among the countries hardest hit by the social and economic consequences of the current pandemic. In order to mitigate the impacts of the crisis, the government is responding with some immediate relief measures – tax deferrals, subsidies for low-income families, and special financial measures for different sectors including energy – as well as planning a quite ambitious recovery program. The decisions that are being taken today are likely to have a profound effect on the energy sector for decades to come. These decisions are influenced by visions and narratives associated with different sectors, with oil and gas being the “golden goose” and renewables the “ugly duckling”.