The global dimensions of Arctic change
The rapid climate change in the Arctic is attributed largely to greenhouse gas emissions that result from consumption patterns in industrialised, developed countries beyond the Arctic’s southern borders. In turn, climate change in the Arctic has various direct impacts on and implications for non-Arctic regions, such as sea-level rise in the case of accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the possibility of an accelerated release of methane into the atmosphere from thawing permafrost soils.
After CO2, the largest contributors to climate change in the Arctic are short-lived climate-forcing pollutants (SLCPs), particularly black carbon (BC), which is formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels and biomass. BC has the potential to accelerate ice melting by darkening bright surfaces, which leads to an increase in the absorption of sunlight (albedo effect). Emissions from industrialised centres in Europe, North America and Asia are currently by far the largest source of BC in the Arctic. And here the main culprits are emissions from diesel engines in Europe and North America and from industrial coal and residential fuel-burning in Asia.
Moreover, as offshore oil and gas exploration and shipping become technologically and economically feasible in the Arctic, significant increases in BC emissions that originate in the Arctic can be expected. This is due to the expansion of mining, energy and transport activities into newly accessible areas that were previously ice-bound – especially along the Russian Arctic coast, but also in Greenlandic and North American Arctic areas. In addition to having potentially severe health and climatic effects in the Arctic itself, these emissions could also reach lower latitudes, thereby aggravating the environmental health risks posed by air pollution in Europe, too.
But the climate is not the only factor that links Arctic and non-Arctic regions. Attempts to exploit the Arctic’s economic potential – through mining, developing offshore oil and gas resources on the continental shelves of Arctic coastal states, using shipping routes through Arctic waters, and tapping into potential new fishing grounds – are largely driven by economic demand and investments from outside the Arctic. The development of global commodity prices for minerals and hydrocarbons, as well as the risk assessments and premiums offered by the (re-)insurance sector, classification societies and international financial investors are further ‘outer-Arctic’ factors that are sure to have a bearing on future Arctic developments.
These Arctic-global teleconnections show that the Arctic is inextricably linked to systems and processes that reach far beyond the Arctic Circle. That is why it is essential to have a thorough understanding of these interconnections on various scales (local, national, regional, international) and in different timeframes in order to equip decision-makers and affected stake- and rights-holders with the necessary knowledge to address current and future challenges for achieving sustainable Arctic futures. To contribute to finding such sustainable pathways for Arctic regions, the IASS is building constructive relationships between Arctic stakeholders in and beyond the Arctic who influence or are affected by the region’s ongoing transformation. And in order to increase their capacity for informed planning for sustainable Arctic futures, the IASS focuses on Arctic governance, specifically on the missing links between Arctic-specific institutions (especially the Arctic Council) and Arctic-relevant institutions. The latter are often broader regional and international organisational structures, such as the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (the ‘OSPAR Convention’) as well as various Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) and conventions under the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
A changing Arctic raises a number of interrelated questions:
How will the use of Arctic resources (especially from mining and offshore oil and gas production) and other economic activities such as shipping and fishing change the Arctic region?
How will SLCPs (especially black carbon) and greenhouse gas emissions influence the Arctic environment, particularly with regard to sea-ice development?
What are the likely impacts of ongoing transformations on Arctic communities and the environment?
What can be done to make the processes of interaction and decision-making among different stakeholders on multiple scales (state, non-state, local, regional, national, international) more effective in transitioning to sustainable Arctic futures?
IASS research on Arctic transformations and sustainability
In order to address these and other questions, the IASS is contributing to the international debate in various ways, for example, by organising workshops, early-career events such as the Potsdam Summer School, and research projects with multiple national and international partners. The framework of IASS Arctic research is provided by the SMART research project, which stands for “Sustainable Modes of Arctic Resource-driven Transformations” (click here for a PDF of above illustration). Work on SMART is being carried out by an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the social and natural sciences, including law, economics, political science, sociology, atmospheric physics and chemistry. SMART hopes to contribute to the development of transformative pathways towards sustainable human-nature interactions in the Arctic and in the multi-faceted interplay between Arctic and non-Arctic regions. The SMART project is unique in its aim to (1) understand its research process as a tool-building, collaborative process with stakeholders to address societally relevant issues and (2) disclose and elucidate the tightening connections between the Arctic and regional and global economic, technological, legal and political processes.
The core questions addressed by SMART are:
How can transformations towards sustainability be envisioned, designed and implemented with the fair, transparent and informed participation of stakeholders?
What influences do Arctic stake- and rights-holders and shareholders from both within and outside the Arctic have, and how might they be affected in each of the plausible future scenarios?
What economic and political factors play a role in plausible scenarios for the economic, social and ecological development of the Arctic now and in the near future?
What factors determine the success or failure of stakeholder collaboration to develop and use scenarios for decision-making at multiple governance levels?
Against this background, SMART researchers have made successful funding applications and engaged in international project development:
- The IASS is a partner in the international “ArcticABC project: Arctic Ocean ecosystems – Applied technology, Biological interactions and Consequences in an era of abrupt climate change” (IASS contact: Kathrin Keil).
- Carolina Cavazos-Guerra and Kathrin Keil from the SMART team were guest researchers at the Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NIERSC) in St. Petersburg in August and September 2014.
- The SMART project was awarded a Fast Track Initiative (FTI)/Future Earth seed funding grant together with partners in Canada and the United States to develop the “ArcticSTAR Initiative: Solution-oriented, Transdisciplinary Research for a Sustainable Arctic” in June 2014.
- In September 2014, the SMART project was awarded seed funding from the Transformations to Sustainability Programme of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) to develop the STARCTIC (Social Transformation Research Group on Arctic Sustainability) research proposal together with the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
- Together with the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and the Jade University of Applied Sciences, SMART researchers are developing the GRASP research project proposal (“Governance of Resources for Arctic Sustainable Policy and Practice”). GRASP strives to support decision-making and governance processes towards the sustainable development of the Arctic through the participation of civil society actors. Experts from various disciplines in the natural and social sciences will develop possible scenarios for Artic development together with civil society actors, thereby contributing to better decision-making processes.
Photo: Dogsled in Svalbard, Norway, (c) Ida Jahr